Expected retirement age

Updated: 1 Apr 2019
Next update: 1 Apr 2020

The expected effective retirement age depicts the average expected age of actual retirement that is formed for insured persons of a certain age, when presuming that starting pensions for a certain age group and mortality rates remain at the level of the year under review. The expected effective retirement age is calculated both for 25-year-olds and 50-year-olds. The indicator was introduced in 2003.

The prediction can be used to review, in particular, changes in the effective retirement age occurring over time. The indicator reacts immediately and in the right direction to changes in retirement risk. Change is followed up primarily through the expected effective retirement age for 25-year-olds, since it describes the entire population covered by earnings-related pension insurance.

The expectancy describes the development in the effective retirement age for the whole population insured for the earnings-related benefits, and it is used as the official indicator to describe the changes in the effective retirement age.

The expected effective retirement age of 50-year-olds is calculated due to the fact that pension policies have the greatest impact on those who have turned 50 years of age. Since persons who have retired under the age of 50 are not included in the calculation, the expectancy for a 50-year-old is always higher than that of a 25-year-old. The difference depicts the impact that retirees between the ages of 25-49 have on the effective retirement age. Annually, approximately 10 per cent of those who retire are aged less than 50 years.

   

Effective retirement age edging up

In 2018, the expected effective retirement age in the earnings-related pension scheme was 61.3 years. Thus, compared to 2017, the effective retirement age increased by 0.1 years. The development of the effective retirement age corresponds almost completely with the forecasts.

Changes in the effective retirement age are measured by the expected effective retirement age, which is based on pension contingencies in different age cohorts.

The gender difference regarding the effective retirement age has been minor in the last few years. Previously, the expected effective retirement age was clearly higher for women than for men. The effective retirement age of men was higher than that of women: 61.6 years for men and 60.9 years for women.

The number of new retirees on an earnings-related pension in 2018 came in at 68,900, clearly less than in 2017. The number of people retiring on an old-age pension fell by 7,800 to 48,900 as a result of the increase in the age threshold for old-age pension.

The number of new retirees on an earnings-related disability pension has decreased appreciably over the past 10 years. But in 2018 the number of new disability pensions was up by 7 per cent. In 2018, 19,900 persons retired on a disability pension.